The idea of “peak oil”, the point in time at which maximum global oil production is reached, followed by a terminal decline until the resource runs out, is not a new concept. Peak coal is, as Lee Jenson reports.
"Peak oil" as a concept was first tabled by American geophysicist Dr M. King Hubbert, who in 1949, predicted a short lifespan for the era of fossil fuels.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted peak production for oil in the USA would be reached within 15 years, and as history shows, the prediction was accurate.
Recently, the question of whether world coal supplies may be heading for a peak was raised in a report from the Energy Watch group in Germany, a collective of independent scientists examining sustainable global energy supplies.
The 2007 report suggested we may be facing the prospect of “peak coal” as early as 2025. However, this notion is not one that greatly concerns Geoscience Australia.
Dr Lynton Jaques, chief scienctist of Geoscience Australia says for Australia, peak coal as a non-issue.
“We’re aware of the publication (by Energy Watch) but it’s certainly not one that’s under active consideration,” Dr Jaques says.
“We don’t subscribe to that, in relation to Australia’s coal resources, at all. Australia’s coal production has been rising strongly and has been projected to rise from a period from 1976 to 2010 by about ninefold, from about 50 million tonnes per year to over 450.
“It’s currently getting up towards 400, and that’s black coal I’m talking about.
“In terms of our black coal, economic demonstrated resources we have close to a hundred year’s supply, at present production rates. I emphasise that is at present production rates.
“In terms of brown (coal) we have many, many times more than that, about 400 years of life at current production rates.”
It should be noted that Australia and India are the only two countries that have recorded increases in economically recoverable reserves of coal since 1986.
Each of the rest of the world’s 70 coal producing nations has revised reserves downwards, with some, including the UK, Germany and Botswana reporting reductions of 90 per cent in reserves.
An updated reserve figure has not been released by China since 1992. According to the World Energy Council in 2007, world reserves of economically recoverable coal total 850 billion tonnes, although that has fallen by more than 170 billion tonnes in the last 20 years.
Last year, the European Commission’s Institute for Energy said the reserves to production ratio, that is, the length of time reserves should last at current rates of consumption, had fallen from 277 years in 2000, to 155 years in 2005.
World coal consumption is increasing rapidly. In 2006, China brought on line an extra 102 gigawatts of power producing capacity. This is enough to power the UK for 12 months. The International Energy Council has predicted a need for global coal production to increase by 70 per cent by 2030 in order to cope with increasing economic growth and subsequent power requirements.
Geosicence Australia’s Dr Jaques says the worldwide demand for coal has resulted in huge exploration efforts, and the discovery of new resources.
“There have been a couple of recent announcements from southern Africa where we’ve seen new coal basins discovered,” Dr Jaques says.
“In Australia we’ve seen significant increase in effort in exploration, particularly in the areas where we have known coal measures but the resources are not well quantified so we’re seeing a lot of exploration to prove those extra resources.
“In fact, we’ve got levels of exploration for coal that we haven’t seen since the early 80s. So we can expect that exploration and future exploration would add resources to our existing considerable resources and reserves and that would likely prolong our life of coal production, even though our coal production is rising steadily.”
The discovery of new resources will be vital, or perhaps peak coal may turn out to be more fact than theory.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted peak production for oil in the USA would be reached within 15 years, and as history shows, the prediction was accurate.
Recently, the question of whether world coal supplies may be heading for a peak was raised in a report from the Energy Watch group in Germany, a collective of independent scientists examining sustainable global energy supplies.
The 2007 report suggested we may be facing the prospect of “peak coal” as early as 2025. However, this notion is not one that greatly concerns Geoscience Australia.
Dr Lynton Jaques, chief scienctist of Geoscience Australia says for Australia, peak coal as a non-issue.
“We’re aware of the publication (by Energy Watch) but it’s certainly not one that’s under active consideration,” Dr Jaques says.
“We don’t subscribe to that, in relation to Australia’s coal resources, at all. Australia’s coal production has been rising strongly and has been projected to rise from a period from 1976 to 2010 by about ninefold, from about 50 million tonnes per year to over 450.
“It’s currently getting up towards 400, and that’s black coal I’m talking about.
“In terms of our black coal, economic demonstrated resources we have close to a hundred year’s supply, at present production rates. I emphasise that is at present production rates.
“In terms of brown (coal) we have many, many times more than that, about 400 years of life at current production rates.”
It should be noted that Australia and India are the only two countries that have recorded increases in economically recoverable reserves of coal since 1986.
Each of the rest of the world’s 70 coal producing nations has revised reserves downwards, with some, including the UK, Germany and Botswana reporting reductions of 90 per cent in reserves.
An updated reserve figure has not been released by China since 1992. According to the World Energy Council in 2007, world reserves of economically recoverable coal total 850 billion tonnes, although that has fallen by more than 170 billion tonnes in the last 20 years.
Last year, the European Commission’s Institute for Energy said the reserves to production ratio, that is, the length of time reserves should last at current rates of consumption, had fallen from 277 years in 2000, to 155 years in 2005.
World coal consumption is increasing rapidly. In 2006, China brought on line an extra 102 gigawatts of power producing capacity. This is enough to power the UK for 12 months. The International Energy Council has predicted a need for global coal production to increase by 70 per cent by 2030 in order to cope with increasing economic growth and subsequent power requirements.
Geosicence Australia’s Dr Jaques says the worldwide demand for coal has resulted in huge exploration efforts, and the discovery of new resources.
“There have been a couple of recent announcements from southern Africa where we’ve seen new coal basins discovered,” Dr Jaques says.
“In Australia we’ve seen significant increase in effort in exploration, particularly in the areas where we have known coal measures but the resources are not well quantified so we’re seeing a lot of exploration to prove those extra resources.
“In fact, we’ve got levels of exploration for coal that we haven’t seen since the early 80s. So we can expect that exploration and future exploration would add resources to our existing considerable resources and reserves and that would likely prolong our life of coal production, even though our coal production is rising steadily.”
The discovery of new resources will be vital, or perhaps peak coal may turn out to be more fact than theory.
